{
  "title": "Newcomb's problem: expected value by predictor accuracy",
  "description": "Expected value of taking one box and of taking both boxes in Newcomb's problem, one row per value of p, the chance that the prediction matches your choice (the same whichever box you take). Payoffs: clear box 1,000 dollars; opaque box 1,000,000 dollars if one box was predicted, otherwise empty. Each row gives both expected values, their difference and which is higher on this rule; the two are equal at p = 1001/2000. Computed in exact fractions 2026-10-31. License CC BY 4.0.",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "creator": "Puzzles, Charts & Dilemmas",
  "page": "https://puzzleschartsanddilemmas.com/puzzles/newcombs-problem/",
  "derived_from": [
    "Payoffs as given in Paul Weirich, Causal Decision Theory, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (substantive revision 2024-10-24), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/decision-causal/ (facts paraphrased, no text reproduced), section 2.1, Figure 1",
    "Computed by Puzzles, Charts & Dilemmas"
  ],
  "method": "Compiled by Puzzles, Charts & Dilemmas from the data listed"
}